Housing Economy Outlook for 2010

April 30, 2010

Dr. Lawrence Yun
Lawrence Yun is Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® . He directs research activity for the association and regularly provides commentary on real estate market trends for its 1.2 million REALTOR® members. Dr. Yun creates NAR’s forecasts and participates in many economic forecasting panels, including Blue Chip and the Harvard University Industrial Economist Council. He appears regularly on financial news outlets and is a frequent speaker at real estate conferences throughout the United States. USA Today recently listed him among the top 10 economic forecasters in the country.
(Information Provided by NAR)
Recently Dr. Yun presented his forecast for the 2010 housing market, specifically targeting Corpus Christi Homes.   In his predictions, he stated that sales of homes in Corpus Christi are down about 5% from a year ago, and that the median home price is currently around $138,000 in our area.  As far as Investor home sales, their nationwide totals come in around 1,400,000 and Vacation home sales at 400,000.
The housing market in Nueces County is primarily made up from Relocations.  Out of 106,556 households, 15,700 people move with in the county, 4,568 move in from other Texas counties and 5,095 move to other Texas counties.  2,687 people move in from other states and 2,466 of the people moving go to other states.
Dr. Yun stated that the commercial market outlook for 2008-2009 were:
– Net Absorption Turned Negative
– Rising Vacancy Rates and Stagnate Rentals
– Markedly Fewer Transactions
– Corpus Christi Homes Property Prices Fell
– Market Distress Climbed
His predictions for the 2010 market are a little more hopeful:
– Economic Recovery and Local Market Recovery
– Commercial Recovery With Lag Time
– Modestly Positive Net Absorption
– Rent Struggles to Move Positive
Dr. Yun also talked about his view on the credit crunch.  He stated that labor rates were improving and that Junk Bond yields are becoming less wild.  He also believes that banks are making a profit but are getting to big again, 75% of assets are controlled by 10 banks.  Another issue he has is that, though not to consumers,the Federal Reserve lending is at zero.  He concluded his lecture stating that he didn’t believe the credit crunch was ending.  “We still need to see lower rates on jumbo mortgages, lower rates on condo purchases, lower rates on second home purchases and lower rates on commercial real estate loans.”